Policy Unwind Adds Risk of Sharply Higher Long-Term Bond Yields

Abstract

Most economists expect a gradual rise in long-term bond yields in the United States and other advanced economies over the next few years. Indeed, central banks are expected to gradually unwind support for their economies and tighten monetary policy, putting steady upward pressure on long-term interest rates. But concerns over the risk of a more rapid increase in long-term yields are not uncommon. Many analysts warn that a quick jump to higher yields could hurt economic growth or trigger volatility in asset prices. Since historical tightening of monetary policy has sometimes resulted in financial market turmoil, these concerns are worth considering.

Author

Robert E. Blake