The Probability Approach to Default Probabilities (WP 2007-1)

Abstract

The probability approach to uncertainty and modeling is applied to default probability estimation. Default estimation for low-default portfolios has attracted attention as banks contemplate the requirements of Basel II's IRB rules. Nicholas M. Kiefer proposes the formal introduction of expert information into quantitative analysis. An application treating the incorporation of expert information on the default probability is considered in detail.

Author

Nicholas M. Kiefer